Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Information Rigidity in the Crude Oil Market: Evidence from Survey Data

Robert Czudaj ()
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Robert Czudaj: Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology

No 50, Chemnitz Economic Papers from Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology

Abstract: This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information rigidity within the crude oil market. However, our findings also show that simple models of imperfect information considered in the literature are insufficient to explain the behavior of professional forecasters. We provide additional stylized facts which are helpful for designing more elaborate imperfect information models

Keywords: Crude oil; Disagreement; Expectations; Heterogeneity; Information rigidity; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2021-09, Revised 2021-09
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Published in Chemnitz Economic Papers, September 2021, pages 1-47

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep050

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