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Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities

Joscha Beckmann (joscha.beckmann@uni-due.de) and Robert Czudaj (robert-lukas.czudaj@wirtschaft.tu-chemnitz.de)
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Joscha Beckmann: University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics

No 19, Chemnitz Economic Papers from Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature by assessing expectation effects from monetary policy for the G7 economies. We consider a sample period running from 1995M1 to 2016M6 based on a panel VAR framework, which accounts for international spillovers and time-variation. Relying on a broad set of expectation data from Consensus Economics, we start by analyzing whether monetary policy has changed the degree of information rigidity after the emergence of the subprime crisis. We proceed by estimating potential effects of interest rate changes on expectations, disagreements and forecast errors. We find strong evidence for information rigidities and identify higher forecast errors by professionals after monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that the international transmission of monetary policy shocks introduces noisy information and partly increases disagreement among forecasters.

Keywords: Bayesian econometrics; expectations; information rigidity; monetary policy; panel VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-02
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Published in Chemnitz Economic Papers, February 2018, pages 1-35

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https://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/vwl1/RePEc/d ... ry_policy_shocks.pdf First version, 2018 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tch:wpaper:cep019

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