Chemnitzer Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Forschungsseminar

Standard post-Keynesian macroeconomic analyses of fiscal policy focus predominantly on its demand-side and employment effects, largely abstracting from the distributional and inflationary consequences of various governmental interventions. We develop an analytical Kaleckian model of conflict inflation to show that fiscal policy does not only have demand and employment effects but also affects distribution between different social groups, may trigger inflation or even (partially) undermine the expansionary effect of public spending. In our model, we contrast the Haavelmo balanced-budget approach with the functional finance approach as proposed by Lerner (1943), arguing that government expenditures should be used to target non-inflationary full employment without being constrained by government deficit or debt targets. We show that these two strategies generate remarkedly different inflationary and distributive dynamics.

While central banks strive for clear communication, their projections of the future policy rate are released with an explicit emphasis on conditionality and uncertainty. The Federal Open Market Committee introduced an additional layer of information in 2012, when it began publishing individual policymakers’ projections of the appropriate future path of monetary policy. The resulting dot plots reveal disagreement within the committee, particularly at medium-term horizons. Such disagreement may reflect uncertainty about the economic outlook, but may equally convey relevant information about the range of plausible future policy paths. This paper examines these dimensions by analysing how policymakers’ disagreement relates to professional forecasts in the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey.

Die Finanzaufsicht steht vor einem Paradigmenwechsel: Nach Jahren zunehmender Regulierung und wachsender Komplexität rückt die Forderung nach Simplification und Proportionalität in den Fokus. Doch wie gelingt die Balance zwischen einer effektiven Aufsicht und der Entlastung kleinerer Marktteilnehmer? In meinem Vortrag beleuchte ich die aktuellen Diskussionen, die strukturellen Herausforderungen und die Spannungsfelder, die eine Kehrtwende in der Regulierung erschweren. Dabei wird deutlich, warum der Weg zu einer vereinfachten und proportionalen Aufsicht alles andere als trivial ist.

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This study examines the long-term health consequences of reduced instructional time during compulsory schooling. I exploit a German reform of the school year schedule from the 1960s, which substantially shortened the length of two school years without adjusting the core curriculum. As a result, learning shifted out of the classroom, primarily through increased homework. Applying a difference-in-differences design to biographical administrative records, I estimate the impact of this policy on severe health issues, as measured by the number of long-term sick leave taken throughout individuals' careers. The results reveal a significant increase in long-term sick leave taking, suggesting that educational disruptions can have lasting effects on adult health.